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Federal Reserve: December hike seen as cycle peak – BNY
In the rates outlook, BNY Markets’ John Velis expects no Federal Reserve rate increase in October, with markets pricing a low probability for an immediate move. He sees December as the next likely and final hike of this cycle, noting that implied policy rates out to December 2027 have eased from their most hawkish levels as inflation remains largely supply-driven.
British Pound: Bullish flag points to range highs against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret see the British Pound (GBP) supported by stronger-than-expected UK labour data. Unemployment fell to 4.7% versus 4.9% expected, while earnings excluding bonuses rose 3.7%, reinforcing Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations.
New Zealand GDT Price Index up to 2.5% from previous 1.2%
New Zealand GDT Price Index up to 2.5% from previous 1.2%
US Treasury yields retreat as Iran deal hopes pull WTI lower
US Treasury yields edge lower on Tuesday after news that Washington and Tehran may be nearing a deal, while another report said that US-Iran talks are ongoing and that a deal is not yet finished.
Canadian Dollar: Rate-hike odds rise as energy supports economy – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke reports that markets now see a sharply higher probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike on 28 October after Governor Macklem flagged stronger support from high Oil prices and likely upward revisions to inflation forecasts. Recent data show headline inflation above prior BoC projections, while surveys point to elevated price expectations despite limited evidence of broadening pressures.
Silver rebounds on weaker US Dollar, but Fed hike risks cap recovery
Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Tuesday, trading around $57.90 at the time of writing, up 1.35% on the day.
Why the Canadian Dollar's rebound isn't just about rate-hike bets
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has become the focus of debate over the Bank of Canada's (BoC) next policy move.
Dollar Index drops on Iran deal report, steadies on denial
Reports that Washington and Tehran have both given preliminary approval to a Qatar and Pakistan compromise have pushed the Dollar Index to its lowest since October 1. It fell from near 101.75 to about 101.65 on the first report and to just above 101.50 once Israel's Channel 12 added the terms.
British Pound surges to 1.3400 as UK jobs beat, Iran deal hopes grow
The Pound Sterling (GBP) surges about 0.70% on solid UK labor market data and news that the US and Iran seem to have reached an agreement, according to Israel’s Channel 12 News. GBP/USD trades near 1.3400 after opening near 1.3300.
British Pound: Gains slight edge over US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists highlight that United Kingdom (UK) unemployment has fallen to a 13‑month low and average earnings have ticked higher, reinforcing expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike to 4% in November.
WTI Oil plunges as US-Iran compromise proposal raises hopes of de-escalation
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil falls sharply on Tuesday, trading around $95.70 at the time of writing, down 2.36% on the day. The Crude Oil retreats after reaching a one-month high above $100 earlier in the day.
Euro climbs as Oil prices tumble on US-Iran negotiation hopes
EUR/USD extends its intraday advance during American trading hours on Tuesday as Oil prices reverse sharply following reports of progress toward renewed US-Iran negotiations, pushing the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields lower.
Canadian Dollar: Market pricing seen excessive despite hike bets – BBH
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman reports USD/CAD is near a one-month low as markets firm expectations for a 25 bps Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hike to 2.50% on October 28, with swaps pricing a 78% probability.