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Australian Dollar extends gains on RBA rate hike expectations ahead of Fed decision
AUD/USD extends its gains on Friday, trading around 0.7035 at the time of writing, up 0.20% on the day.
Bank of Canada: Gradual return to neutral – TD Securities
TD Securities’ macro team, led by Andrew Kelvin and Robert Both, does not share market conviction for an October Bank of Canada rate hike. They expect the BoC to hold at 2.25% now, then deliver 25bp increases in December and January, taking policy to the midpoint of its neutral range while monitoring inflation breadth, growth data and the impact of new tariffs.
Japanese Yen pares gains as bond yields fall despite stronger inflation
USD/JPY reverses earlier losses on Friday after slipping to a five-week low of 156.08 during Asian trading hours.
Euro: France-linked spread risks keep EUR unattractive – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING notes that widening French OAT-Bund and OAT-BTP spreads have yet to materially weigh on the euro, but warns that sensitivity to French sovereign risk could return rapidly if spreads approach 200bp.
European Central Bank: One more hike then extended plateau – Commerzbank
Commerzbank economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave its deposit rate at 2.50% in October, then raise it to 2.75% in December in response to persistent Eurozone inflation.
Euro slips toward 1.1200 as US economic strength overshadows Eurozone
EUR/USD declines for the third consecutive day on Friday, trading around 1.1200, down 0.12% at the time of writing.
Bank of Canada: Preemptive tightening focus – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada economists Frances Donald and Nathan Janzen highlight the possibility of a 25 basis point Bank of Canada rate hike on Wednesday, while acknowledging that December or January remains an alternative.
Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data.
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation meets forecasts (3.5%) in October
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation meets forecasts (3.5%) in October
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (46.3) in October: Actual (48)
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (46.3) in October: Actual (48)
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 48.8 above expectations (0) in October
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 48.8 above expectations (0) in October
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations in line with expectations (4.7%) in October
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations in line with expectations (4.7%) in October
Euro: Fiscal risks cap upside against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) strategist Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD trading defensively below 1.1200 after weaker-than-expected Eurozone PMI, which still signals robust growth.