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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below expectations (-0.8M) in October 16: Actual (-3.061M)
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below expectations (-0.8M) in October 16: Actual (-3.061M)
United Kingdom: Budget faces limited fiscal flexibility - Nomura
Nomura’s UK budget preview expects Chancellor Healey, at his first budget on 28 October, to allow fiscal headroom to fall to around £15bn. Following September public finance data, the cash deficit is no longer surprising to the upside.
Silver price weakens on higher US yields as Iran tensions limit downside
Silver (XAG/USD) declines on Wednesday, trading around $57.50, down 0.89% at the time of writing. The precious metal remains under pressure as rising United States (US) Treasury yields and a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.
Hungary: Euro-entry driven fiscal tightening – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY Mellon argues that Hungary has become a positive fiscal outlier in CEE, front‑loading consolidation to pursue Eurozone entry by 2030.
Bank of England: Rate path shaped by energy shock – ING
ING’s James Smith expects the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates in November and February as a precaution against second-round inflation effects, even as evidence of broader spillovers from higher energy prices remains limited.
United Kingdom: Tax rises and temporary relief – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank anticipates around 25–30 policy measures in the Autumn Budget, with modest consolidation and backloaded tax increases. A higher bank surcharge, online marketplace VAT collection and dividend tax hikes are expected to lift receipts by about GBP 4bn by 2031/32. Temporary cost of living and business support will front-load spending, keeping net expenditure only slightly higher than Spring projections.
Brazilian Real: Election flows and fiscal reform prospects – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes increased flows into the Brazilian Real (BRL) ahead of the presidential runoff. The bank highlights that the Real has weakened 3% from its post-election high, with buyers appearing near 5.10 and a low bar for a move below 5.00 if Bolsonaro wins. Under a baseline Bolsonaro victory scenario, the institution expects improved prospects for fiscal reforms and debt stabilization.
British Pound: Overbought rally still has upside scope against US Dollar – UOB
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD surged as Sterling outperformed major peers, though short-term conditions are now overbought. Intraday, they expect consolidation within a tight band, but the 1–3 week view still allows for further gains toward higher resistance, with downside invalidation only on a break of revised strong support levels.
US Dollar: Softer tone with shifting rate expectations – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar is trading modestly weaker as US housing data disappoints and markets scale back expectations for an October Fed hike. Despite softer housing indicators, MUFG still expects one more Fed rate increase in December.
Hungarian Forint: Domestic improvement versus global headwinds – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports Hungary’s new fiscal path projects the deficit falling to 2.8% by 2030, aligned with Euro adoption plans, while the National Bank of Hungary keeps rates at 5.50% and stresses caution amid global uncertainties. EUR/HUF trades in a tight 362–364 range, with positioning corrections and future direction seen hinging on global developments and energy prices.
Romanian Leu: Budget credibility key to stability - Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes EUR/RON trading below 5.35 and 10-year RONGB yields under 7% after parliament approved the Niculescu government, ending a political deadlock. The bank highlights fragile political stability and a commitment to reduce the deficit below 3% by 2030.
Australian Dollar: RBA hawkish shift supports currency – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights rising rate hike expectations for the RBA as Australian inflation risks are seen as “materially worse” than earlier forecasts.
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.3%) in August
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.3%) in August