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Japanese Yen: Further gains favored against US Dollar - BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that recent Oil-driven market moves and sticky US Consumer Price Index (CPI) have strengthened expectations for a September Fed hike, but the futures curve already prices nearly 100 bps of tightening over twelve months.
US 10-year yield crosses 5% rubicon as Fed hike looks locked
The US 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 5% threshold on Monday for the first time since 2023, rising by more than four basis points as investors almost fully price in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the US 10-year is at 5.006%
Euro tumbles to one-month low as Fed rate hike bets dominate
EUR/USD trades under pressure on Monday, with the Euro (EUR) losing around 0.55% against the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback strengthens across the board as traders position for a possible Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike at the September 15-16 monetary policy meeting.
Canada: Contained inflation pressures support steady BoC – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation stayed at 3% year-over-year in August, with Food and energy components still elevated but easing somewhat.
Federal Reserve: One-off September hike view – ING
ING economists James Knightley, Padhraic Garvey and Chris Turner now expect a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike in September following Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
British Pound: BoE risks in focus – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is softer against the Dollar but still outperforming most G10 currencies in a risk-off environment. Markets expect a hawkish hold from the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday, with a possible 25 bp hike in November.
British Pound loses ground as markets brace for Fed, BoE monetary decisions
GBP/USD extends its decline on Monday and trades around 1.3470 at the time of writing, down 0.38% on the day. The pair falls to the lower end of its monthly range, weighed down by renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) ahead of several major monetary policy decisions.
Brent: Covert tanker flows may ease supply pressure - Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s FX Research team, including Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao, highlight that Brent crude has surged on Strait of Hormuz hostilities but see scope for gradual de-escalation in coming months.
Euro: ECB credibility may offer support against Dollar – DBS
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that the Euro has a subtle advantage over the Dollar this week, as the European Central Bank’s recent hikes and focus on inflation underscore its institutional credibility.
Gold: CTA liquidation and dip-buying narrative – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) have turned large sellers of Gold, liquidating nearly half of their net-long exposure as markets price a Federal Reserve hike and higher energy costs.
Canadian Dollar remains under pressure following mixed inflation data
USD/CAD edges higher for the fourth consecutive day on Monday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) outweighs support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from rising Oil prices. Traders show a muted reaction to the latest Canadian inflation figures.
Sweden: Election uncertainty and fiscal stance – Nomura
Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, led by Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak, notes that Sweden’s 13 September election remains too close to call, with the centre-left only narrowly ahead.
Federal Reserve: Inflation keeps pressure on – Commerzbank
Commerzbank economists note that August US CPI data were broadly in line with expectations but still too high for the Federal Reserve. They stress excessive underlying price pressure and say the Fed has already signaled readiness to hike.