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British Pound buckles as US yields rise puts Fed in command
The British Pound (GBP/USD) tested five-week lows of 1.3464 and trimmed some of its earlier losses on Monday, but it remains in the red, down 0.23% amid a light economic docket in the US and the UK as both countries' central banks get ready to release their monetary policy decisions on Wednesday and
Euro falls as higher Oil prices support Canadian Dollar amid mixed inflation data
EUR/CAD declines to around 1.6060 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.17% on the day. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) benefits from the sharp rise in Oil prices, while the latest Canadian inflation data do little to alter the near-term monetary policy outlook.
The Dollar Index climbs on Fed hike bets and stalls at its usual ceiling
The Dollar Index trades near 99.50, up 0.4% on the day, and it made the whole of that gain while America was asleep. A 5% Treasury yield sounds like the best thing that could happen to the Dollar, and New York has spent the morning selling it.
Japanese Yen weakens at the start of a central bank-heavy week
USD/JPY climbs on Monday as US Dollar (USD) demand picks up ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Dow Jones Industrial Average loses another round to rising bond yields
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 200 points and trades just under 52,400, and the reason is less exciting than the headlines. Those are about artificial intelligence (AI) and a sell-off in chip stocks, and that story belongs to the Nasdaq Composite, down about 1%.
Euro area: Supply chain risks and core goods outlook – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists Sam Cartwright and Michel Martinez analyze how renewed supply chain disruptions, including conflict in the Middle East, may affect Euro Area prices.
Australian Dollar slides to monthly low as Fed hike odds firm
AUD/USD slipped to a new monthly low in the 0.7100s on Monday, driven by a firm run of United States (US) data that has pushed the market toward pricing in a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike at its meeting later this week.
Japanese Yen: JPY underperforms into BoJ – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY), down 0.7% versus the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming G10 peers alongside New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and Swedish Krona (SEK).
Federal Reserve: Forward guidance impact – Commerzbank
Pfister and Liebke analyse 30 years of FOMC meetings to separate interest rate surprises from forward guidance shocks and their effect on the US Dollar and G10 currencies.
Crude Oil: Elevated upside risk with CTAs max long – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that CTAs remain maximally long WTI Crude, Brent Crude, diesel and gasoline as attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Russia sustain a significant upside risk premium.
Euro: Support seen near 1.15 against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is weaker, down about 0.5% versus the US Dollar (USD), as risk aversion supports broad USD strength. Yield spreads imply a fair value near 1.1633, while data have been light ahead of Tuesday’s ZEW survey.
Japanese Yen: Further gains favored against US Dollar - BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that recent Oil-driven market moves and sticky US Consumer Price Index (CPI) have strengthened expectations for a September Fed hike, but the futures curve already prices nearly 100 bps of tightening over twelve months.
US 10-year yield crosses 5% rubicon as Fed hike looks locked
The US 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 5% threshold on Monday for the first time since 2023, rising by more than four basis points as investors almost fully price in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the US 10-year is at 5.006%