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Euro: ECB seen hiking in September – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues the European Central Bank (ECB) can delay action today but will keep a hawkish tone as inflation stays near 3% and core pressures may even rise.
Norwegian Krone: Limited upside from Norges Bank flows – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that while Norwegian Krone (NOK) should find demand from improved Oil and gas terms of trade and a relatively hawkish Norges Bank, elevated holdings and modest FX purchases limit upside.
European Central Bank: September hike risk builds – ING
ING’s Michiel Tukker expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2.25% at the upcoming meeting, with a September hike seen as likely as Oil prices rise and markets already price in around 23bp.
Swiss Franc weakens as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar
USD/CHF extends its gains for the fourth successive day, trading around 0.8150 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after recovering its daily losses amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States (US)-and Iran.
Analysts agree: Hawkish ECB expectations are likely to keep Euro supported
The Euro (EUR) remains steady above 1.1400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, showing a surprising resilience to the surging Oil prices and the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.
Japanese Yen: Energy shock drives weaker currency – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that rising Oil and natural gas prices are pressuring the Japanese Yen (JPY), with USD/JPY hitting fresh year-to-date highs above 163.00.
Gold: Rally capped by rate risks – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes that Gold has rebounded on dip buying and short covering after key technical support held, with prices near $4,150/oz.
Dow Jones futures decline on Middle East tensions, massive AI investment concerns
Dow Jones futures lose 0.56% to trade around 52,160 during European trading hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 0.54% and 0.74%, trading near 7,500 and 28,960, respectively.
Australian Dollar: RBA tone may turn hawkish – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights a strong Australian labor market, with 76,000 jobs added and participation back near historic highs, prompting markets to raise the implied probability of an RBA hike to 30%.
US Secretary of State Rubio warns of intensifying military attacks on Iran
United States (US) Secretary of State Marco Rubio warns that military attacks on Iran could intensify further, as the nation is not ready to make a deal.
China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) up to -5% in June from previous -8.6%
China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) up to -5% in June from previous -8.6%
WTI extends rally towards $90 as Middle East energy supply risks intensify
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, extends its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Thursday, is up over 3% at around $88.60 during the European trading session.
British Pound: Sterling to hand back gains – ING
ING analysts Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and James Smith argue Sterling’s summer strength is driven by positioning, carry and possible M&A flows rather than UK fundamentals.