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Indian Rupee: AI imports add pressure against US Dollar – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered economists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand highlight that India’s AI-enabling goods trade deficit has become the second-largest contributor to the country’s trade gap after Oil, overtaking Gold.
Gold: CTA whipsaws but support holds – TD Securities
TD Securities’ commodity strategists report that CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) have reversed recent Gold buying, yet emphasize that discretionary investors continue to support the metal.
Canadian Dollar remains under pressure as hawkish Fed contrasts with steady BoC
USD/CAD holds firm near the 1.4000 psychological mark on Monday as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish outlook and widening US-Canada interest-rate differentials keep the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the back foot.
US Dollar: Oil-driven support as Fed seen hiking – ING
ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes the Dollar remains supported as ING now expects the Fed to deliver one final rate hike in December. Despite near-term upside risks for the Dollar, ING keeps a gradually negative longer-term view and anticipates lower energy prices in Q4.
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index : -0.04 (August) vs -0.08
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index : -0.04 (August) vs -0.08
Japanese Yen: BoJ hike underwhelms as yields drive JPY against US Dollar – OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened after the BoJ’s 25 bp hike to 1.25% as limited guidance on further normalisation disappointed hawkish expectations.
Experts agree: Further US Dollar’s upside hinges on upcoming data and not hawkish Fed prospects
The US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher on Monday as traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates again this year. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.30.
Silver price edges up as lower Oil, guarded Fed stance temper upside
Silver (XAG/USD) starts the week on a positive note, gaining 0.37% on Monday to trade around $66.50 at the time of writing. The precious metal manages to advance despite a stable US Dollar (USD), with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading virtually unchanged around 100.25.
EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Bears remain in control with 1.1450 support eyed
The Euro (EUR) is consolidating last week’s decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with price action capped below 1.1500 and the seven-week low in the mid 1.1400s still on the bears’ radar.
Mexican Peso: Sideways range against US Dollar intact – Rabobank
Rabobank's Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz expect USD/MXN to trade broadly between 17 and 18 over the next 12 months. They see room for both Fed and Banxico rate expectations to be repriced, with the timing of those adjustments likely to drive near-term volatility.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Momentum stabilizes, but lacks bullish conviction
GBP/JPY edges higher on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure across the board in thin trading conditions. Japanese markets are closed until Wednesday for the country’s Silver Week holidays.
India Infrastructure Output (YoY) fell from previous 5.4% to 4.8% in August
India Infrastructure Output (YoY) fell from previous 5.4% to 4.8% in August
Brent: Diesel signals higher prices – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight a sharp divergence between physical Brent and futures, with Dated Brent trading at a substantial premium. They note that Diesel strength implies Brent should be above $150/bbl to restore historical refining economics.