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Oil: Supply risks keep prices elevated – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Brent has retreated slightly below $100 but remains supported by renewed Middle East tensions, Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and Kazakhstan’s export halt. Institutional flows show high-conviction re-accumulation of energy exposure from a still-depleted base.
Swiss Franc gains slightly against US Dollar as Oil prices ease
USD/CHF trades flat on Friday as a pullback in Oil prices weighs modestly on the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. However, the Middle East war and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep an underlying floor under the Greenback.
Pakistan and Iran explore renewed US talks under China-backed diplomatic push
Pakistan and Iran are exploring a possible path toward renewed negotiations with the United States (US) as part of a new diplomatic initiative supported by China, Reuters reported, citing several sources familiar with the discussions.
Euro slips as strong US PMI supports Greenback
EUR/USD pares earlier gains on Friday as the widening Middle East war and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep the US Dollar (USD) pinned near recent highs.
WTI Price Forecast: Bulls retest 100-day SMA as momentum stays bullish
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eases on Friday as traders lock in profits following a 6% jump the previous day. However, the widening Middle East war limits the downside as supply risks intensify around two major energy-shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
European Central Bank: September hike risk rises with oil and PMIs – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts highlight that ECB President Lagarde has opened the door to a September rate hike, with sources suggesting euro area inflation must improve markedly to avoid tightening.
United Kingdom: Energy shock keeps risks elevated – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman notes UK headline CPI fell to 2.6% in June, below the MPC’s forecast, with broad-based downside surprises and easing domestic pressures.
Gold steadies after sharp drop as traders weigh Fed, Middle East risks
Gold (XAU/USD) steadies on Friday after falling nearly 2% the previous day, as surging Oil prices fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates amid a worsening inflation outlook.
Indian Rupee: Oil surge offsets inflow support – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists highlight that the Indian Rupee (INR) stayed defensive as Brent Oil rose to $100, countering support from recent policy steps to attract capital inflows.
Gold: Oil-led inflation fears cap recovery – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold has come under pressure as higher Oil prices stoke inflation concerns and push yields and the US Dollar higher.
Brent: War premium drives triple-digit prices – UOB
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that escalating US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have driven Brent crude above US$100 for the first time since May, with Asia trading near US$101.
Equities: Oil shock and tech earnings hit equities – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply as surging Oil prices and stagflation fears weighed on risk assets. Weak post‑earnings reactions in Tesla and Alphabet dragged the Mag 7 index to its biggest daily loss since 2025.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Softens below 1.4100, but bullish outlook stays intact above key support
The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.4075 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East boost crude oil prices, supporting the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).