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Canadian Dollar weakens as US CPI puts October Fed hike in play
USD/CAD climbs on Wednesday, reversing the previous day’s losses as the US Dollar (USD) rallies to a fresh year-to-date high following higher-than-expected US inflation data. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.4287, up 0.50% on the day near 18-month highs.
European Central Bank: October skip and limited hikes – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY Mellon expects the ECB to skip an October rate hike and possibly be done for the year, citing clear guidance on second‑round effects, emerging sovereign risks and French budget uncertainty. He argues that any balance‑sheet response, such as ending quantitative tightening or using the Transmission Protection Instrument, would effectively mark the end of rate‑based tightening as policy tools must not work at cross‑purposes.
China: External trade supports growth – UOB
UOB’s Ho Woei Chen highlights that strong external demand, particularly in technology and AI-related products, is underpinning China’s growth in 2026. Export and import growth have remained robust, widening the trade surplus.
Hungary: Euro adoption plans hinge on fiscal path – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Saabir Salad analyzes Hungary’s fiscal outlook and its implications for Euro adoption and the Forint. The Tisza government’s 2027 budget and new medium-term fiscal plan, due this month, are seen as key tests of credibility. The bank now forecasts Hungary’s deficit at 7.5% of GDP in 2026, narrowing to about 5% in 2027 and below 3% by 2029–2030.
Japanese Yen approaches September lows as US Dollar surges on inflation shock
USD/JPY extends its advance on Wednesday, gaining 0.36% to trade around 158.90 at the time of writing.
United Kingdom: Price pressures seen rising – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan expect UK headline CPI to rise to 3.49% year-on-year in September, with core CPI at 2.74% and Services CPI at 3.71%. They project 2027 CPI to average 3.7% versus 3.2% in 2026, and see headline RPI jumping to 3.93% year-on-year near term and 5.2% longer term.
British Pound slides as US CPI lifts Fed rate-hike expectations
GBP/USD loses around 0.52% on Wednesday as higher-than-expected US inflation data reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes, triggering fresh buying in the US Dollar (USD), while US Treasury yields also rebound sharply.
Euro plunges to 17-month low as hot US inflation fuels Fed rate hike bets
EUR/USD extends its decline on Wednesday, losing 0.55% on the day to trade around 1.1135 at the time of writing, its lowest level since May 2025.
Natural Gas: Prices extend 2026 rally – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily highlights European natural gas 1‑month TTF futures surging to 86.81 EUR/MWh, the highest level since 2023, after rising more than €60 from 2025 lows. Strategist Florence Schmit stresses growing European reliance on LNG ahead of the planned full phase‑out of Russian gas from 2027, with weaker October LNG exports from the Middle East and softer LNG arrivals into Europe.
Oil: Middle East tensions and yield spillovers – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that Middle East developments and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure raise the probability of higher crude Oil prices. He warns that an escalation involving US support for Saudi Arabia or renewed strikes on Iran could push Oil back toward earlier-year peaks. Such a move would likely trigger another jump in long-term yields and broader market volatility, impacting global FX.
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) above expectations (336.65) in September: Actual (336.94)
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) above expectations (336.65) in September: Actual (336.94)
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a came in at 338.9, above forecasts (0) in September
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a came in at 338.9, above forecasts (0) in September
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.3% above expectations (0.2%) in September
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.3% above expectations (0.2%) in September