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EUR/USD Price Forecast: On verge of downward-trendline breakout
The Euro (EUR) trades slightly lower at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.
Federal Reserve: September hike odds reassessed – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen comments that weaker United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and a drop in labour supply have reduced urgency for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, though policy remains data‑dependent.
Copper: Tariff-driven arbitrage reshapes COMEX-LME spread – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that Copper has shifted into a policy-driven trade as Section 232 tariffs reshape the COMEX-LME arbitrage.
Gold holds firm as Fed rate outlook, Middle East developments remain in focus
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to extend gains on Monday as buyers take a breather following last week’s sharp rally, with the broader market theme still centred on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook and developments in the Middle East.
Japanese Yen underperforms on surprising current account deficit
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is down against its major currency peers on Monday, trading 0.6% lower at around 158.80 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing during the European trading session.
Gold: Central bank demand underpins rally – ING
ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Gold extended its rally as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 640koz to reserves, marking 21 consecutive months of accumulation. Spot Gold moved above $4,320/oz, supported by ongoing central bank buying and stronger Chinese ETF demand.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains bullish, pushing against $4,380 resistance
Gold (XAU/USD) holds moderate gains at the mid-range of the $4,300s on Monday, consolidating gains after a nearly 7.5% rally last week.
US Dollar: Softer labor data supports downside – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu and David Tam note that weaker United States (US) labor data have lowered real-rate expectations and extended the Dollar decline, creating a more supportive environment for risk assets and duration.
Experts agree: The US Dollar rally migh have come to an end
The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates losses, trading below 100.00 at the time of writing on Monday, holding near its lowest levels since mid-June.
British Pound tests 1.3500 as US Dollar struggles to shake off NFP shock
GBP/USD trades around 1.3495 on Monday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.04% on the day. However, the pair struggles to hold firmly above the psychological 1.3500 level after benefiting on Friday from a decline in the US Dollar (USD) triggered by disappointing United States (US) employment data.
Norwegian Krone: Policy hold guidance in focus – Nomura
Nomura’s Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak expect Norges Bank to keep its policy rate at 4.25% at the August meeting, citing softer underlying inflation and benign domestic data.
CEE FX: Data-heavy week under global pressure – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy Central and Eastern Europe calendar with Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report and key Polish data, including GDP and core inflation.
Euro: Fed repricing supports gains against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists highlight that EUR/USD has squeezed above key resistance as Dollar weakness follows softer United States (US) employment data and reduced odds of a September Fed hike. The pair is seen slightly expensive versus nat gas but near fair value on 2-year spreads.