Market News
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Bank of Canada: Rates outlook and inflation risks – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that the Bank of Canada adopted a more hawkish tone, emphasizing upside inflation risks even as core inflation stays subdued.
Eurozone: Resilient growth, worrying inflation – ABN AMRO
ABN AMRO economists Bill Diviney and Jan-Paul van de Kerke expect Eurozone growth to remain resilient despite a renewed energy shock, supported by German fiscal spending and solid underlying activity.
United Kingdom: Growth pace cools after hot start – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan expect United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to have slipped slightly in July after strong growth earlier in 2026. They forecast a modest monthly contraction led by services and production, with construction only marginally higher.
US Dollar: CPI outcome to steer Fed path – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) weakened on broad Japanese Yen strength before partially recovering as strong US August payrolls revived expectations for a September Fed hike.
Gold: Bull market conviction broadens – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe a broad-based Gold bull market in 2026, driven by ETFs, futures and options positioning. They highlight strong physical ETF inflows, near-record futures exposure by money managers and a structurally bullish options skew.
Japanese Yen hits six-and-a-half-month high on hawkish BoJ bets
USD/JPY extends its steep decline on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) rallies against the US Dollar (USD), supported by hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations, capital repatriation and the unwinding of Yen-funded carry trades.
United States: Inflation risks but still contained - TD Securities
TD Securities projects August Core CPI at 0.19% m/m and 2.3% y/y, with services driving gains and core goods slightly negative. Headline CPI is seen at 0.37% m/m and 3.4% y/y on higher energy and food.
Canadian Dollar finds support from Oil surge despite Fed rate hike bets
USD/CAD trades around 1.3810 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day. The pair comes under some pressure as the sharp rise in Oil prices supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD), although underlying strength in the US Dollar (USD) limits the downside.
Euro area: Inflation overshoot extends ECB hiking path – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists Anatoli Annenkov, Michel Martinez and colleagues expect Euro area inflation to stay above target beyond 2027, with headline inflation projected to peak near 3.7-3.8% and core around 2.7-2.8%.
Asia FX: Oil shock keeps tone cautious – OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong expects Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) currencies to start the week on a selectively cautious footing after renewed US–Iran tensions lifted Brent above US$96.
Euro benefits from weaker US Dollar as ECB decision looms
EUR/USD holds modest gains at the start of North American trading hours on Monday as a softer US Dollar (USD) and stronger-than-expected Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data support the Euro (EUR).
Euro: ECB tightening supports currency – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver another 25 bps hike this week, taking the policy rate to 2.50%, supported by above-target Eurozone inflation and a firmer growth outlook.
US Dollar: Range-bound support as Fed priced – ING
ING’s Chris Turner notes that resilient global equities and an above-consensus US jobs report mean the Dollar should be stronger, but risk appetite is capping gains. He highlights upcoming US CPI and Treasury auctions as key catalysts.