Market News
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Germany: Cautious growth outlook – ABN AMRO
ABN AMRO’s Chief Economist Germany, Alexander Krüger, notes that German economic output is rising and the bank has raised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% and for 2027 to 1.1%.
United States Dollar Index trades under pressure as Yen buying accelerates
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, extends its decline on Monday as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) outweighs support from elevated geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations.
Forex Today: Japanese GDP figures and China’s trade results in the limelight
The US Dollar (USD) has started the week on the back foot, rapidly leaving behind Friday’s uptick and refocusing on the downside.
A German landslide moved the Euro by nothing at all
EUR/USD holds above 1.1600, seven pips above where Monday opened. The pair has had three chances to move over four sessions and has taken none of them. Both central banks are priced to raise rates this month for the same energy shock, and a rate gap that is not moving does not move a currency.
United States: Sideways growth and oil shock risks – TD Securities
TD Securities expects US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the prior Oil shock lingers and the Iran conflict poses stagflationary risks. GDP is forecast to end 2026 at 2.1% Q4/Q4, with unemployment around 4.2%. The bank assigns a 25% probability to a US recession over the next year.
The Japanese Yen has stopped trading the Federal Reserve
USD/JPY trades just above 154.00 after giving up close to two Yen on Monday, its weakest in six months. Nothing confirms an intervention, and Tokyo has no level left to defend at six-month Yen highs.
British Pound climbs as USD fades, Hormuz risk keeps Fed in play
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises over 0.23% amid thin trading, as US markets remain closed for the Labor Day weekend, while the US-Iran conflict escalated, with both countries exchanging strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3541.
New Zealand Dollar struggles to gain traction as cautious RBNZ outlook weighs
NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Monday at the time of writing, posting a modest 0.06% decline on the day after two consecutive days of gains.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Pair consolidates around the 50-day SMA
USD/CHF trades with a downside bias on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) stays on the defensive, largely due to broad Japanese Yen (JPY) strength. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8091 after retreating from an intraday high of 0.8110.
United Kingdom: BoE holds but risks later cuts – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s UK team notes weakening housing demand as mortgage approvals fall to late-2023 lows, while business lending remains firm and wage expectations show limited second-round effects.
Australian Dollar hits three-month high as RBA rate hike bets intensify
AUD/USD advances on Monday, gaining 0.22% on the day to trade around 0.7220 at the time of writing, after reaching its highest level in more than three months.
WTI Oil climbs as Middle East supply risks remain evelated
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil edges higher on Monday as fresh attacks by the United States and Iran over the weekend add to already elevated supply concerns from the months-long war in the Middle East. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $91.15 per barrel, its highest level since July 24.
Japanese Yen: September BoJ decision shapes path – HSBC
HSBC highlights that markets now expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten policy more quickly, with overnight index swaps implying about 75bp of cumulative hikes by April 2027 and assigning odds to a move at the 18 September meeting.