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European Central Bank: Rates on hold but tightening bias – Nordea
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich expects the European Central Bank to leave policy rates unchanged at the July meeting, describing it as a pause rather than a shift in stance. Lower-than-expected June inflation and volatile Middle East developments reduce urgency for an immediate move.
British Pound: Bearish against Euro on hawkish ECB guidance – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists see asymmetric downside risks for the British Pound (GBP) against the Euro (EUR). They argue that EUR/GBP appears notably undervalued relative to rate differentials, data surprises and equity performance.
Japanese Yen: Homeward investment shift could support recovery – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains near cyclical lows, but Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) and Japan Trusts flows already show a shift back toward JGBs.
Silver price on track for weekly decline as Middle East tensions fuel rate-hike worries
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $55.50 at the time of writing on Friday, virtually unchanged on the day, but remains on track to post a weekly loss of nearly 7%.
US Dollar: Smile narrative supports gradual gains – OCBC
OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by its yield advantage and safe-haven status, with FX moves still fitting the USD smile framework.
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.1%) in June
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.1%) in June
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.4%) in June
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.4%) in June
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.2% in June
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.2% in June
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in June
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in June
WTI Price Forecast: Consolidates near $79.00 before the next leg up amid bullish setup
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – extends its sideways consolidative price moves for the fourth straight day and trades around the $79.00 mark through the first half of the European session on Friday.
Brazil: Tariff fallout shapes election dynamics – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Dan Pan assesses new United States (US) Section 301 tariffs on Brazilian exports, noting a 25% levy effective 22 July that could rise to 37.5%.
Japanese Yen: Slight downside bias within tight band against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY has edged higher to around 162.35, with intraday bias tilted modestly to the upside but capped between 162.10 and 162.65.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: More downside likely towards 1.3970
The USD/CAD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.4033 during the European trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair edges down as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms its major currency peers amid fears that oil prices could accelerate further.