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Cập nhật các tin tức, dữ liệu và phân tích quan trọng tác động đến forex và thị trường tài chính toàn cầu.
LatAm FX: Carry supports resilience against US Dollar - BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise.
Gold swings around $4,000 as conflicting Middle East headlines drive markets
Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a volatile range on Monday as markets react to conflicting headlines from the Middle East. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,010, little changed on the day after climbing to an intra-day high of $4,040.
Australian Dollar: Carry and growth support potential rebound – HSBC
HSBC strategists argue AUD/USD has room to rise into 2027, supported by Australia’s relatively high cash and government bond yields, which make the Australian Dollar attractive on a carry basis within G10 FX.
Gold: Fed risks and Dollar strength cap upside – TD Securities
TD Securities’ commodity strategists, led by Bart Melek, note that Gold investors have sharply reduced long exposure as higher Oil prices from the US‑Iran conflict threaten recent disinflation progress.
Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.
New Zealand Dollar gains as softer Fed outlook offsets Middle East tensions
NZD/USD moves higher on Monday and trades around 0.5850 at the time of writing, up 0.14% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following the latest US inflation data.
Canadian Dollar: Inflation cools as BoC stays patient – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.
British Pound: Sterling shifts into broader range against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports GBP/USD slipping but lacking strong downside momentum, with intraday trade expected between 1.3420 and 1.3475. The prior bullish view has faded after a break of 1.3450 support, and the pair is now seen in a 1.3385–1.3495 range.
Fed: On-hold stance with upside hike risk – TD Securities
TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes.
Canadian Dollar under pressure as softer inflation meets firmer US Dollar
USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as softer-than-expected Canadian inflation data and a firmer US Dollar (USD) weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while tensions in the Middle East keep financial markets volatile. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4045, up 0.17% on the day.
Oil: Diplomatic risk keeps prices supported – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Iran’s signals of continued military response alongside active mediation keep the Middle East conflict in a managed but unstable phase.
Australian Dollar: Labor data seen reinforcing RBA pause – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia’s June labor force report to show a modest 15k job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%, slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) projection.
New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ tightening cycle underpins Kiwi – HSBC
HSBC strategists see NZD/USD supported by New Zealand’s strengthening growth data and an aggressive Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiking path. The RBNZ has begun raising rates and HSBC Economics projects 25bp hikes per quarter to 3.50% by Q3 2027.