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Australian Dollar jumps as Yen struggles with Japan’s fiscal woes
AUD/JPY rises 0.70% on Monday and trades around 112.25 at the time of writing. The pair benefits from broad weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), while the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds firm ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
Federal Reserve: Sideways growth and sticky inflation – TD Securities
TD Securities’ US economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran-related risks keep the Federal Reserve on hold through year-end.
Japanese Yen: Faces risk of return to 160 against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that softer United States (US) data and a more dovish Fed outlook should, in theory, benefit the Japanese Yen (JPY) given its high rate sensitivity.
US Dollar: Positioning-driven softness ahead of CPI – BNY
BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong notes that the US Dollar (USD) has been the weakest G10 currency on iFlow metrics as markets scale back expectations for a September Fed hike.
Euro: Softer CPI may unlock 1.1600 against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that with key Eurozone data behind and European Central Bank (ECB) communication subdued, EUR/USD is now driven mainly by the United States (US) side.
British Pound rises against Japanese Yen as intervention impact fades
GBP/JPY edges higher on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the G10 currency space, with structural headwinds limiting the impact of recent intervention. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 214.70, up 0.85% on the day.
Hungarian Forint: Recovery against Euro may resume – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has only partially retraced its post-election gains and is expected to recover if global risk conditions stabilise, with EUR/HUF seen returning towards 350–355 in coming months.
Gold: CTA selling limits upside below $4,400 - TD Securities
TD Securities’ commodity strategists report that Gold is holding gains after weaker US jobs data reduced perceived Fed hike risks, but CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are unwinding length.
WTI Oil jumps over 3% as Iran sets conditions for Strait of Hormuz reopening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil rises 3.20% on Monday and trades around $78.80 at the time of writing. Oil prices retain strong daily gains, supported by uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and persistent tensions in the Middle East.
Australian Dollar: Uptrend targets 0.7120 against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes AUD/USD has defended its 200-DMA and established a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, signalling a short-term uptrend.
Japanese Yen: Rate spread outlook favors JPY against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that JPY is underperforming as firmer Oil prices support USD/JPY, while the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest meeting minutes did little to shift rate expectations.
Copper: Weak China imports contrast with bullish positioning - ING
ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that China’s latest trade data show continued weakness in copper imports, with unwrought volumes down 11.5% year-on-year and concentrate flows also softer.
US Dollar: Higher hurdle for sustained gains – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that weaker US jobs data have not triggered a strong reaction in Dollar or rates, as markets await key Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases and another Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) before the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).