ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that Norges Bank delivered a hawkish shift, signalling upcoming rate hikes as inflation concerns extend beyond the energy shock. The bank now fully prices at least one hike in its projections, while ING expects only one move given its bearish Oil and gas baseline.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations to end the conflict keeps markets on edge, with price action largely driven by hawkish global interest rate expectations stemming from an Oil-driven inflation shock.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) stays on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as rising Middle East tensions and ongoing uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations keep the Greenback firmly supported across the board.
United States 4-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.615% to 3.62%
The GBP/USD pair consolidates around 1.3360 on Thursday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump exerts pressure on Iran to reach a deal. Solid US jobs data maintained the status quo, which remains controlled by geopolitics.
TD Securities expects UK Retail Sales for February to decline, projecting -0.6% month-on-month versus the market’s -0.7% and January’s 1.8%. They bank attributes the pullback to fading idiosyncratic supports and adverse weather weighing on physical store traffic.
United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 11 (March) vs 10
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that USD/CAD continues to grind higher as haven demand for the US Dollar dominates, with the pair trading well above an estimated fair value of 1.3543.
AUD/USD trades around 0.6920 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day, and remains close to its monthly lows amid a bearish consolidation phase. The pair struggles to stage any meaningful rebound as the US Dollar (USD) continues to draw solid support.
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (-49B) in March 20: Actual (-54B)
ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that markets continue to price two to three European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes in 2026, with April odds still elevated. They stress that the ECB must balance data dependence with managing expectations along the curve.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that the central bank of Germany, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has opened the door to an April European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike if Middle East‑driven energy prices elevate inflation risks.
