AUD: RBA keeps May hike option open on Iran risk – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that RBA minutes show March’s back‑to‑back rate hike was a closer call than markets assumed. Board members agreed more tightening is needed but differed on timing, with the March move mainly aimed at preserving flexibility.

Dow Jones futures gain on easing risk aversion, lower oil prices

Dow Jones futures rise, up by 0.81%, above 45,800 during European hours, ahead of the United States (US) regular market open on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.78% and 0.54% to near 6,440 and 23,260, respectively, at the time of writing.

Oil
ECB: War-driven energy shock shapes rate path – Nomura

Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak argues that March Euro area inflation will not significantly alter the ECB’s near-term policy stance. They expect policy rates to stay unchanged through Q4 2027, with the Iran war and its impact on Brent crude and energy prices now the key driver of ECB decisions.

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