TD Securities strategists Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo maintain a constructive stance on the Australian Dollar (AUD) despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) close 5-4 vote. A positive terms of trade shock and increased hedging by Australian pension funds underpin AUD outperformance in G10.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5860 on Tuesday, posting a slight daily decline after rebounding from intraday lows. The move remains limited but reflects cautious market sentiment as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady and multiple risk factors dominate the macro backdrop.
ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey highlights that recent output cuts at Alba and Qatalum tighten the Aluminium supply outlook, with Gulf disruptions now affecting a notable share of regional production.
The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5860 price region on Tuesday, erasing almost all its intraday losses as the Middle East war escalates, pressuring the US Dollar (USD).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trims part of earlier gains and edges lower on Tuesday as traders struggle to extend the rally at elevated levels while continuing to assess geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran war and ongoing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch compares current Oil disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz blockade with the 1970s oil crises, highlighting record supply shortfalls and potential demand and supply adjustments over time.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/THB has risen over 4% month‑to‑date as markets scaled back expectations for near‑term Fed easing and Oil prices surged, hurting Thailand’s terms of trade.
TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali warns Gold is increasingly exposed as US 2-year yields break their downtrend and the macro backdrop shifts.
United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) fell from previous -0.4% to -0.8% in February
United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.5%) in February: Actual (1.8%)
Deutsche Bank’s Global Head of FX Research George Saravelos notes that the Iran war has made markets highly correlated to energy, with higher Oil prices and weaker global growth now supporting the Dollar. Asia FX is seen as central to broad Dollar direction and is being hit hardest.
Societe Generale economists assess how the reformed German debt brake and approved 2025–2026 budgets will lift German fiscal spending and affect the Euro area.
