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Why the Canadian Dollar's rebound isn't just about rate-hike bets
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has become the focus of debate over the Bank of Canada's (BoC) next policy move.
British Pound surges to 1.3400 as UK jobs beat, Iran deal hopes grow
The Pound Sterling (GBP) surges about 0.70% on solid UK labor market data and news that the US and Iran seem to have reached an agreement, according to Israel’s Channel 12 News. GBP/USD trades near 1.3400 after opening near 1.3300.
British Pound: Gains slight edge over US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists highlight that United Kingdom (UK) unemployment has fallen to a 13‑month low and average earnings have ticked higher, reinforcing expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike to 4% in November.
Canadian Dollar: Market pricing seen excessive despite hike bets – BBH
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman reports USD/CAD is near a one-month low as markets firm expectations for a 25 bps Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hike to 2.50% on October 28, with swaps pricing a 78% probability.
Euro: Recovery capped by French spread tensions against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight EUR/USD around 1.1212, noting the Euro (EUR) is underperforming peers as Eurozone bond-market tensions persist. The elevated French OAT/Bund spread reflects ongoing social and fiscal strains. While the German ZEW survey shows some improvement in current conditions, expectations softened, and the bank characterizes the Eurozone economy as remaining in a slow recovery phase, limiting Euro (EUR) upside.
Australian Dollar climbs above 0.7000 as US-Iran diplomatic hopes weigh on the US Dollar
AUD/USD advances on Tuesday, trading around 0.7010, up 0.43% on the day at the time of writing.
Brazilian Real: Run-off risks skewed to downside against US Dollar – ING
Chris Turner at ING notes USD/BRL has consolidated around 5.05 after gapping lower to 4.95 on Flavio Bolsonaro’s strong first-round showing. Polls for Sunday’s Lula–Bolsonaro run-off have tightened to roughly 50:50, with Lula’s gains linked to labour law changes.
United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) below expectations (0%) in September: Actual (-11.3%)
United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) below expectations (0%) in September: Actual (-11.3%)
United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at -7.3% below forecasts (-0.5%) in September
United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at -7.3% below forecasts (-0.5%) in September
British Pound: Stronger labour data backs BoE hikes – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the Pound is strengthening, with EUR/GBP near its year-to-date low and GBP/USD above 1.3350, as stronger UK labour data show rising payrolled employment and private sector wage growth in line with Bank of England projections. He argues this supports expectations for BoE rate hikes and a lower EUR/GBP trading range between 0.8200 and 0.8400.
Euro: Two-phase weakness and recovery prospects against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen analyzes EUR/USD’s sharp decline since September, initially driven by broad US Dollar strength and later by Euro-specific concerns over France’s public finances.
United States Redbook Index (YoY) above expectations (0%) in October 16: Actual (9%)
United States Redbook Index (YoY) above expectations (0%) in October 16: Actual (9%)
Canadian Dollar: BoC rate hike bets seen as excessive - Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered economist Dan Pan expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its policy rate at 2.25% through end-2026 and 2027, despite market pricing for a much steeper tightening cycle.