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France: Budget strains weigh on outlook – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad warns France’s budget crisis is deepening and complicating Eurozone fiscal dynamics. A minority government’s deficit-reduction plan faces parliamentary hurdles, while the fiscal watchdog calls assumptions optimistic.
Euro-area Inflation: Headline pressures rise – Nordea
Nordea’s Global Macro team of Tuuli Koivu, Jan von Gerich and Anders Svendsen note Euro-area inflation accelerated in September, driven mainly by energy and food.
Mexican Peso: Carry liquidation pressures LatAm currencies – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that rising rates volatility is driving a broader unwind of EM FX carry trades, with LatAm currencies under particular pressure. USD/MXN has surged and MXN long leveraged positions are being squeezed as implied volatility jumps.
Euro trims daily gains as Eurozone inflation accelerates above expectations
The Euro (EUR) is practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the EUR/USD pair trading at the mid-1.1200s, still close to the 16-month low of 1.1210 hit on Thursday.
EUR/USD: French risk premium weighs on Euro – ING
ING’s Chris Turner argues that the French debt sell-off has broken the narrative of ever-higher short-term rates and raised doubts about further European Central Bank (ECB) tightening.
Eurozone flash HICP rises faster by 3.8% YoY in September, beats 3.6% estimates
Eurozone’s preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for September arrives at 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY), higher than 3.6% estimates and August’s final reading reading of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, inflationary pressures grew at a faster pace of 0.6% against the prior release of 0.4%.
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) above expectations (0%) in September: Actual (0.6%)
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) above expectations (0%) in September: Actual (0.6%)
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 3.8%, above forecasts (3.6%) in September
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 3.8%, above forecasts (3.6%) in September
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below expectations (3.6%) in September: Actual (2.9%)
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below expectations (3.6%) in September: Actual (2.9%)
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.5%) in September
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.5%) in September
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in September
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0%) in September
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Remains supported by 20-day EMA ahead of US NFP
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
S&P 500: Resilient as Fed tone turns dovish – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid team reports that the S&P 500 broke a three-day losing streak, helped by a pullback in US Treasury yields and more dovish FOMC commentary. Despite strong US data and earlier upward pressure on yields, markets now price a much lower probability of an October Fed hike, supporting US equities into the upcoming jobs report.