Fed Holds in June, Dot Plot Signals Just One Cut for 2025

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-0 to keep the federal funds rate target range at 5.25%–5.50% at its June meeting. The updated Summary of Economic Projections dot plot median now shows just one 25 bp cut in 2025, trimmed from three projected in March. Chair Powell said the committee lacks sufficient confidence that inflation is sustainably returning to the 2% goal and needs to see more positive data. The dollar index rose 0.4% following the statement, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.38%, and gold moved lower under pressure.