Turkish Lira: Policy pause and MSCI risk weigh – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists report expectations that Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will hold rates at 37% on Thursday versus consensus for a 100bp cut to 36%. They cite softer growth and liquidity strains versus sticky inflation expectations as reasons for caution. They flag Governor comments on allowing Lira weakness, limited inflation pass-through, and new MSCI-related equity market risks alongside a sharp Borsa Istanbul 100 decline.