Euro: French spreads threaten downside against US Dollar – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that France’s deteriorating public finances are driving a sharp widening in French-German spreads, with the premium already near past crisis highs. Using Italy’s 2018 budget turmoil as a template, Haddad warns that further spread widening could pressure EUR/USD toward 1.1000, while noting that France’s 2027 presidential election may eventually restore confidence if credible deficit reduction is delivered.