Market News
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US Dollar: Policy uncertainty supports USD – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu says softer June Consumer Price Index (CPI) has reduced immediate inflation concerns, but limited Fed guidance continues to support policy uncertainty and US Dollar (USD).
British Pound: Downside risks from softer UK data – HSBC
HSBC argues that GBP/USD faces renewed downside as UK disinflation and a softer labour market reduce urgency for further Bank of England tightening, even though markets still price hikes out to 2027.
Euro: Firmer against US Dollar despite slower growth – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas strategists project Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow to 0.8% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025 due to spillovers from the Middle East conflict and weaker consumption.
New Zealand Dollar hesitates despite weaker US Dollar on renewed Iran diplomacy hopes
NZD/USD trades around 0.5790 at the time of writing on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day.
United States Durable Goods Orders rise 0.3% in June vs. 1.6% expected
New orders for manufactured Durable Goods in the United States (US) rose by $1.1 billion, or 0.3%, to $334.8 billion in June, the US Census Bureau announced on Monday. This reading followed a 4% decline recorded in May and fell short of the market expectation for an increase of 1.6%.
British Pound loses ground against Japanese Yen ahead of central bank decisions
GBP/JPY edges lower on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) weakens across the board following its recent advance, with traders trimming exposure ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 217.84, down 0.23% on the day.
CEE FX: Softer geopolitics aids high beta – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects upcoming Czech and Hungarian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to confirm improving growth momentum, while Polish inflation should re-accelerate on higher fuel prices.
United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense increased to 0.3% in June from previous -4.6%
United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense increased to 0.3% in June from previous -4.6%
United States Durable Goods Orders below forecasts (1.6%) in June: Actual (0.3%)
United States Durable Goods Orders below forecasts (1.6%) in June: Actual (0.3%)
Russian Ruble: CBR credibility risks after cut – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports the Russian central bank cut its key rate to 14.0% despite raising its 2026 inflation forecast and projecting stagflationary macro conditions.
Federal Reserve: Extended pause but hike risk rising – UOB
UOB strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds Target Rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and maintain a base case of an extended pause through 2026, with easing only in 2Q and 4Q 2027 once transitory inflation fades.
Oil: Lower prices ease inflation risks – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that easing Oil prices, helped by reduced Iran–US tensions, are bringing crude closer to their base case of a gradual downtrend.
Mexico Trade Balance, $ increased to $4.09B in June from previous $2.259B
Mexico Trade Balance, $ increased to $4.09B in June from previous $2.259B