Market News
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British Pound: Growth slowdown and higher rates – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 1% in 2026 from 1.3% in 2025, with renewed inflation pressures from the war in Iran pushing inflation to 3.2%.
Euro: Recovery signals offer limited upside against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Eurozone leading indicators, including Germany’s IFO, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and ZEW, point to improving activity.
Euro trims gains as geopolitical risks, Fed outlook support US Dollar
EUR/USD reverses its early gains on Monday and moves toward filling the bullish gap at the weekly open. The pair initially rose after a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment, sent Oil prices sharply lower and weighed on the US Dollar (USD).
European Central Bank: Rate path and yields after sharp rise – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists argue July’s global fixed income selloff looks stretched, especially in Western Europe where 2-year and 10-year yields have risen about 30bp in four weeks.
Federal Reserve: Mixed signals keep rates on hold – DBS
DBS Group Research economists Taimur Baig and Chang Wei Liang argue that sticky United States (US) inflation keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), but soft consumption, weak investment and fading labour market resilience justify a pause in Fed Funds rate hikes.
US Dollar: Policy uncertainty supports USD – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu says softer June Consumer Price Index (CPI) has reduced immediate inflation concerns, but limited Fed guidance continues to support policy uncertainty and US Dollar (USD).
British Pound: Downside risks from softer UK data – HSBC
HSBC argues that GBP/USD faces renewed downside as UK disinflation and a softer labour market reduce urgency for further Bank of England tightening, even though markets still price hikes out to 2027.
Euro: Firmer against US Dollar despite slower growth – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas strategists project Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow to 0.8% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025 due to spillovers from the Middle East conflict and weaker consumption.
New Zealand Dollar hesitates despite weaker US Dollar on renewed Iran diplomacy hopes
NZD/USD trades around 0.5790 at the time of writing on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day.
United States Durable Goods Orders rise 0.3% in June vs. 1.6% expected
New orders for manufactured Durable Goods in the United States (US) rose by $1.1 billion, or 0.3%, to $334.8 billion in June, the US Census Bureau announced on Monday. This reading followed a 4% decline recorded in May and fell short of the market expectation for an increase of 1.6%.
British Pound loses ground against Japanese Yen ahead of central bank decisions
GBP/JPY edges lower on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) weakens across the board following its recent advance, with traders trimming exposure ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 217.84, down 0.23% on the day.
CEE FX: Softer geopolitics aids high beta – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects upcoming Czech and Hungarian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to confirm improving growth momentum, while Polish inflation should re-accelerate on higher fuel prices.
United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense increased to 0.3% in June from previous -4.6%
United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense increased to 0.3% in June from previous -4.6%