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WTI Oil jumps over 3% as Iran sets conditions for Strait of Hormuz reopening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil rises 3.20% on Monday and trades around $78.80 at the time of writing. Oil prices retain strong daily gains, supported by uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and persistent tensions in the Middle East.
Australian Dollar: Uptrend targets 0.7120 against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes AUD/USD has defended its 200-DMA and established a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, signalling a short-term uptrend.
Japanese Yen: Rate spread outlook favors JPY against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that JPY is underperforming as firmer Oil prices support USD/JPY, while the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest meeting minutes did little to shift rate expectations.
Copper: Weak China imports contrast with bullish positioning - ING
ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that China’s latest trade data show continued weakness in copper imports, with unwrought volumes down 11.5% year-on-year and concentrate flows also softer.
US Dollar: Higher hurdle for sustained gains – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that weaker US jobs data have not triggered a strong reaction in Dollar or rates, as markets await key Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases and another Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) before the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Euro: Modest upside bias against US Dollar as Fed repricing – Rabobank
Rabıobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent EUR/USD strength, noting it was mainly driven by a softer Dollar after weak United States (US) labour data reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations.
Australian Dollar: RBA policy pause maintained – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, noting that policy is already restrictive and that Australian activity, particularly housing, is slowing in response to earlier hikes.
Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening risks support JPY – BNY
BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that long-end JGB yields are rising on inflation and fiscal concerns, with markets pricing a roughly 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end.
Oil: Strait risk and cautious positioning – ING
ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Oil prices remain supported by uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran negotiations continue.
Silver tests $65: Why are buyers struggling to extend the rally?
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to extend its gains on Monday following last week’s strong breakout as traders assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook amid risks on both sides of its dual mandate.
Norwegian Krone: Rate hike odds slashed after soft inflation – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) is trading mixed as firmer Oil offsets the drag from reduced Norges Bank tightening expectations.
Canadian Dollar steadies, caught between risk aversion, rebounding Oil prices
USD/CAD trades around 1.3940 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day after falling sharply on Friday.
US Dollar: Fed pricing shifts with softer data – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists note that Friday’s mixed United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report led to a notable repricing of September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) odds, with futures-implied probability of a hike falling to 44%.