Markets were driven by a shift in geopolitical sentiment as reports of potential ceasefire talks initially eased tensions. However, uncertainty quickly resurfaced after Iran signaled reluctance to engage with the United States, highlighting fragile diplomatic progress and keeping markets on edge.
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao discusses Indonesia’s onshore markets as they reopen after the Lebaran holiday to a backdrop of uncertain geopolitics and volatile global sentiment.
The USD/CHF pair advances for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, up by nearly 0.45% after bouncing off the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), slightly above the 0.7900 figure.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that APAC balance-of-payments pressures from the Iran conflict and energy by-products are increasingly driving currency flows, with MYR, THB, AUD and PHP in focus.
The NZD/USD pair fell to the 0.5800 region, remaining under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) stays firm amid geopolitical uncertainty and elevated yields.
DBS Group Research economists Byron Lam and Daisy Sharma present a China GDP Nowcast indicating real GDP growth likely improved to 4.7% in 1Q 2026 from 4.5% in Q4 2025.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports that the Euro faces conflicting forces as ECB President Christine Lagarde warns of potential forceful tightening if energy-driven inflation persists, while growth risks rise.
GBP/JPY trades within a tight range on Wednesday, with choppy price action as ongoing developments in the US-Israel war with Iran continue to drive volatility across the FX space, while traders show limited reaction to recent economic data.
USD/JPY trades around 159.00 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.18% on the day. The pair continues to draw support from sustained demand for the US Dollar (USD) in an environment marked by persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
TD Securities expects Norges Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, noting stubbornly sticky inflation and risks of re-acceleration after the Middle East crisis and energy price shock.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that AUD/USD is trading near the lower end of its recent 0.6900–0.7200 range. February inflation was slightly softer than expected, but Haddad expects Australian price pressures to accelerate as higher energy costs feed through.
ABN AMRO economists revise their Eurozone outlook after the Iran-related energy shock, expecting weaker growth but notably higher inflation. They now see the European Central Bank (ECB) hiking twice in Q2, front‑loading tightening to prevent second‑round effects.
