NZD/USD trades around 0.5650 on Friday, up 0.05% at the time of writing, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure despite a weaker US Dollar (USD) following the latest US inflation data.
OCBC’s FX strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Brent Oil has dropped sharply on optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after a US–Iran deal, but warn markets may be underpricing security risks.
Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner argues that despite market expectations for further Fed tightening, falling Oil and gasoline prices should lower U.S. inflation and ease pressure for hikes.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds above the $4,000 mark on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) softens following the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which broadly met forecasts and reduced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation below expectations (3.4%) in June: Actual (3.3%)
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 49.5, below expectations (50) in June
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 50.7 above expectations (49.3) in June
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations meets forecasts (4.6%) in June
Geoff Yu at BNY identifies Indonesia as one of the clearest cross-asset signals in Emerging Markets (EM) APAC (Asia-Pacific).
HSBC strategists describe Malaysia as relatively resilient to elevated Oil prices thanks to its status as a net energy exporter and beneficiary of the AI (Artificial intelligence) hardware cycle.
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Japanese Yen remains near year-to-date lows versus the US Dollar, with intervention risks limiting further weakness.
Bart Melek at TD Securities argues that Strait of Hormuz disruptions have driven Oil inventories to historically low levels, leaving Brent oversold and vulnerable to a sharp short-covering rebound.
