TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir argue that the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces conflicting signals as the Iran conflict drives an Oil shock.
NZD/USD trades lower on Wednesday around 0.5820, down 0.22% on the day, extending its decline for a second straight day. The downside move is mainly driven by the strength of the US Dollar (USD), supported by a broader risk-off environment.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $88.20 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.40% on the day, attempting to stabilize after a recent pullback.
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu argues that India’s new GDP series points to weaker historical growth and softer domestic demand than previously reported.
Nordea’s Group Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen notes that the Danish parliamentary election has produced a highly fragmented Folketing, with 12 parties entering parliament and no majority for either the red or blue bloc. The Moderates, led by Lars Løkke Rasmussen, now hold the balance of power.
USD/JPY registers back-to-back bullish days on Wednesday after testing key support at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 158.24 on Monday, yet it remains shy of clearing the key weekly high of 159.65 hit on Monday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 159.27, up 0.36%.
ING’s Carsten Brzeski warns that Germany’s long-awaited cyclical rebound has been dented after the Ifo index fell sharply in March, with expectations suffering their worst hit since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russia Industrial Output registered at -0.9%, below expectations (1.1%) in February
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains nearly 2% on Wednesday as Oil futures prices tumbled amid growing speculation that the US and Iran would begin talks to end the conflict that started nearly four weeks ago. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,556.
TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay warns that Oil markets face escalating tightness as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely restricted and Gulf production cuts exceed 10m b/d.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) reverses course on Wednesday as the Greenback edges higher on the day, as risk appetite deteriorates following news reports that Iran's nuclear Bushehr power plant was hit.
Markets were driven by a shift in geopolitical sentiment as reports of potential ceasefire talks initially eased tensions. However, uncertainty quickly resurfaced after Iran signaled reluctance to engage with the United States, highlighting fragile diplomatic progress and keeping markets on edge.
