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Fed: Divergent inflation paths shape rate outlook – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Jan Groen notes that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes confirmed a hawkish hold, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showing an even split between members favoring unchanged or lower rates and those preferring hikes.
US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 215K last week
According to a report from the US Department of Labor (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance shrank to 215K for the week ending July 4.
United States Continuing Jobless Claims remains at 1.814M in June 26
United States Continuing Jobless Claims remains at 1.814M in June 26
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average fell from previous 222K to 218.75K in July 3
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average fell from previous 222K to 218.75K in July 3
United States Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts (218K) in July 3: Actual (215K)
United States Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts (218K) in July 3: Actual (215K)
New Zealand Dollar: Rate support constrained by Oil drag – OCBC
Christopher Wong highlights that the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened after a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike, but higher Oil prices are capping gains.
Aluminium: Price outlook shifts lower as market rebalances – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists have downgraded its Aluminium price outlook as supply recovers and demand softens. They now expect Aluminium to average $3,378/t in 2026 and $3,281/t in 2027, projecting smaller deficits and a move toward market balance while still ruling out a major rout.
Brent: Supply recovery meets weak China demand – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson notes that Oil prices fell after the US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding allowed Persian Gulf supply to recover faster than expected, while demand lagged.
Mexico 12-Month Inflation below forecasts (3.52%) in June: Actual (3.37%)
Mexico 12-Month Inflation below forecasts (3.52%) in June: Actual (3.37%)
Mexico Headline Inflation below expectations (-0.13%) in June: Actual (-0.27%)
Mexico Headline Inflation below expectations (-0.13%) in June: Actual (-0.27%)
Mexico Core Inflation came in at 0.24%, below expectations (0.31%) in June
Mexico Core Inflation came in at 0.24%, below expectations (0.31%) in June
Euro: Sideways trading outlook against US Dollar – Rabobank
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how Euro sentiment has cooled after optimism around Germany’s debt brake, with political risks and structural headwinds weighing on the currency.
Oil: Strait of Hormuz risks keep prices supported – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Oil is back in focus as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nears a standstill and ceasefire risks rise. iFlow data show energy equities flows stabilizing after June profit-taking, with valuations and under-ownership becoming more attractive.