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Canada: Inflation divergence shapes BoC outlook – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Nathan Janzen and Abbey Xu expect Canada’s June Consumer Price Index to show headline inflation easing to 2.8% year-over-year from 3.2% in May, mainly on lower energy prices.
US Dollar: Risk-off support and DXY downside risks – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the US Dollar (USD) is broadly firmer as risk aversion dominates, with equities weaker and Oil higher.
Swiss Franc holds gains against US Dollar as Middle East tensions outweigh upbeat US data
USD/CHF trades around 0.8070 at the time of writing on Friday, down 0.22% on the day. The pair remains under pressure as safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF) offsets modest support for the US Dollar (USD) following stronger-than-expected US consumer sentiment data.
Brent: Oil risks rise on Bab al-Mandab threat – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s commodity team highlights renewed geopolitical risks for Oil as Iran again threatens to block the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, a key route for Saudi exports rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz.
Global FX: Divergent central bank paths and Oil – Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo Economics has raised its global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 2.7% for 2026 and trimmed global Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 4.3%, reflecting a slightly lower Oil price path.
Fed’s Hammack: Persistently high inflation is the bigger concern
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said in a LinkedIn post on Friday that inflation pressure remains broad-based, with businesses calling for policy action and consumers expressing a growing sense of despair as they struggle to cover their expenses.
Euro: Modest pullback before ECB decision against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD trading slightly lower in quiet conditions as markets look ahead to next week’s ECB meeting, with policymakers in a blackout period and implied volatility subdued. They and consensus expect no policy change.
Canada: Energy-led CPI pullback supports BoC – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to ease to 2.9% year-on-year in June, with a 0.2% monthly decline driven by sharply lower Energy prices.
Gold: Rally stalls as Fed outlook stays hawkish – Commerzbank
Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that weaker United States (US inflation data briefly supported Gold, but the price has slipped back below USD 4,000 per troy ounce.
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: RSI flirts with oversold territory as bears defend key resistance
EUR/GBP edges higher on Friday, extending gains for a second consecutive day as traders cover short positions following the midweek sell-off. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8501 but is still on track for a fourth straight weekly loss.
Canadian Dollar: Bullish bias with 1.3981 in focus against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as a modest outperformer, with firmer Oil offsetting weak equities and narrowing front-end spreads driving gains. Position adjustment after heavy CAD short-building is adding tailwinds.
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54 (July) vs 50.7
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54 (July) vs 50.7
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2% (July) vs previous 4.6%
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2% (July) vs previous 4.6%