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Euro: Modest upside bias against US Dollar as Fed repricing – Rabobank
Rabıobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent EUR/USD strength, noting it was mainly driven by a softer Dollar after weak United States (US) labour data reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations.
Australian Dollar: RBA policy pause maintained – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, noting that policy is already restrictive and that Australian activity, particularly housing, is slowing in response to earlier hikes.
Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening risks support JPY – BNY
BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that long-end JGB yields are rising on inflation and fiscal concerns, with markets pricing a roughly 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end.
Oil: Strait risk and cautious positioning – ING
ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Oil prices remain supported by uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran negotiations continue.
Silver tests $65: Why are buyers struggling to extend the rally?
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to extend its gains on Monday following last week’s strong breakout as traders assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook amid risks on both sides of its dual mandate.
Norwegian Krone: Rate hike odds slashed after soft inflation – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) is trading mixed as firmer Oil offsets the drag from reduced Norges Bank tightening expectations.
Canadian Dollar steadies, caught between risk aversion, rebounding Oil prices
USD/CAD trades around 1.3940 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day after falling sharply on Friday.
US Dollar: Fed pricing shifts with softer data – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists note that Friday’s mixed United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report led to a notable repricing of September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) odds, with futures-implied probability of a hike falling to 44%.
Australian Dollar approaches two-month highs at 0.7088 with RBA decision on tap
The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains, in the mid-range of the 0.7000s against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with two-month highs of 0.7088 at hand. The Aussie is capitalising on the US Dollar’s weakness, as hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes wane.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: On verge of downward-trendline breakout
The Euro (EUR) trades slightly lower at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.
Federal Reserve: September hike odds reassessed – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen comments that weaker United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and a drop in labour supply have reduced urgency for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, though policy remains data‑dependent.
Copper: Tariff-driven arbitrage reshapes COMEX-LME spread – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that Copper has shifted into a policy-driven trade as Section 232 tariffs reshape the COMEX-LME arbitrage.
Gold holds firm as Fed rate outlook, Middle East developments remain in focus
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to extend gains on Monday as buyers take a breather following last week’s sharp rally, with the broader market theme still centred on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook and developments in the Middle East.