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Carry Trade: Supportive backdrop holds – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that in-line United States (US) inflation and a modestly lower probability of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike have left the US Dollar (USD) broadly range-bound while risk assets continue to rally.
United States 4-Week Bill Auction down to 3.625% from previous 3.64%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction down to 3.625% from previous 3.64%
United Kingdom: Upside GDP surprise, limited BoE impact – TD Securities
TD Securities reports that United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for June surprised to the upside at 0.3% m/m, driven by a strong services sector expanding 0.4% m/m. May was revised to flat, leaving June as the only positive month in Q2.
Poland: Fuel-driven inflation rise contained – ING
ING’s Adam Antoniak explains that Poland’s July CPI rose mainly due to higher fuel prices after VAT normalization, removal of the fuel cap and increased Oil costs following the US–Iran MoU collapse.
India: Inflation path higher into FY27 – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered strategists have raised its FY27 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation forecast to 4.9% from 4.5%, citing higher food and retail fuel prices. They now expect broader price pressures, excluding Gold and Silver, with food and beverage CPI seen at 6.3%.
United States: Equities favored over Treasuries – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the loss of some U.S. exceptionalism has not translated into a broad exodus from U.S. assets. Cross-border investors maintain high U.S. equity allocations, supported by technology and AI themes, while trimming Treasury holdings as curve steepening raises duration risk.
Canadian Dollar steadies as falling Oil offsets US Dollar weakness
USD/CAD trades around 1.3940 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day. The pair remains caught between two opposing forces: the US Dollar (USD) weakens following softer-than-expected US data, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid falling Oil prices.
United Kingdom: Softer second-half growth expected – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Sam Cartwright notes United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.4% qoq in 2Q26, driven mainly by business investment and resilient consumer spending.
Euro holds steady against Pound Sterling despite steady UK growth
EUR/GBP is trading sideways on Thursday near the 0.8540 level, with the Euro (EUR) steadying after three consecutive days of losses despite the Pound Sterling (GBP) gaining support from UK economic growth data that was broadly in line with expectations.
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 36B, above expectations (31B) in August 7
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 36B, above expectations (31B) in August 7
Canada: Spending resilience with energy pressures – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) analysts Rachel Battaglia and Abbey Xu note Canadian consumers kept spending in Q2 despite weak real wage gains and higher energy costs.
Euro edges higher against US Dollar after soft US PPI data
EUR/USD holds modest gains on Thursday as softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data fails to trigger a strong reaction in the pair. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1537 after recovering from an intraday low of 1.1511, its lowest level in more than a week.
Norwegian Krone: Softer Norges Bank stance weighs – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports Norwegian Krone weakness after Norges Bank left rates at 4.25% but softened its hawkish bias. Forward guidance shifted from a likely hike to a more conditional stance, dropping an explicit call for tighter policy.