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Global FX: Divergent central bank paths and Oil – Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo Economics has raised its global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 2.7% for 2026 and trimmed global Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 4.3%, reflecting a slightly lower Oil price path.
Fed’s Hammack: Persistently high inflation is the bigger concern
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said in a LinkedIn post on Friday that inflation pressure remains broad-based, with businesses calling for policy action and consumers expressing a growing sense of despair as they struggle to cover their expenses.
Euro: Modest pullback before ECB decision against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD trading slightly lower in quiet conditions as markets look ahead to next week’s ECB meeting, with policymakers in a blackout period and implied volatility subdued. They and consensus expect no policy change.
Canada: Energy-led CPI pullback supports BoC – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to ease to 2.9% year-on-year in June, with a 0.2% monthly decline driven by sharply lower Energy prices.
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: RSI flirts with oversold territory as bears defend key resistance
EUR/GBP edges higher on Friday, extending gains for a second consecutive day as traders cover short positions following the midweek sell-off. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8501 but is still on track for a fourth straight weekly loss.
Canadian Dollar: Bullish bias with 1.3981 in focus against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as a modest outperformer, with firmer Oil offsetting weak equities and narrowing front-end spreads driving gains. Position adjustment after heavy CAD short-building is adding tailwinds.
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54 (July) vs 50.7
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54 (July) vs 50.7
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2% (July) vs previous 4.6%
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2% (July) vs previous 4.6%
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3% (July)
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3% (July)
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 54.4, above expectations (51) in July
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 54.4, above expectations (51) in July
United Kingdom: Supply-side choices shape outlook – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily, titled “To govern is to choose”, discusses the UK’s political and macroeconomic backdrop as Labour’s Andy Burnham is set to become prime minister.
European Central Bank: Holds fire as September stays live – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2.25% in July after June’s hike, with September remaining a live meeting.
United States Capacity Utilization came in at 76.1%, below expectations (76.2%) in June
United States Capacity Utilization came in at 76.1%, below expectations (76.2%) in June