USD/CAD pares losses as Oil slides below $90 on US-Iran talks optimism

USD/CAD trims some of its earlier losses on Tuesday as easing Oil prices on renewed US-Iran talks optimism weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), helping the pair recover from intraday lows even as improving risk sentiment keeps the US Dollar (USD) under broad pressure.

Oil
Bessent says Fed should “wait and see” before cutting rates

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent crossed the wires on Tuesday, stating that he’s “quite confident” that core prices would continue to edge lower in the US despite the Iran war, and that he’s pressing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates.

FED
GBP/USD: Upside bias with limited resistance – Scotiabank

Scotiabank notes the Pound is up 0.3% versus the Dollar, trading at pre‑conflict highs as investors welcome strong demand for UK debt. Domestic data risk is light before trade and industrial production, while BoE speakers, including Gov. Bailey, pose event risk.

BoE’s Greene: Second-round effects

Megan Greene, external member of the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Reuters reported on Tuesday that the United Kingdom’s (UK) economic activity was weak before the Iran war but that at the same time, the war impact is inflationary.

Fed’s Goolsbee: We will get inflation to 2%

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago, told AP at the Semafor World Economy conference on Tuesday that the longer the Middle East concerns go, the cut could be pushed out of 2026.

FED
China: Trade surplus slide raises growth risks – ING

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that China’s March trade surplus dropped to a 13‑month low as exports slowed and imports surged, especially in tech-related categories.

USD/CAD: Bearish setup as valuation gap narrows – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is making modest gains versus a softer US Dollar (USD), though it lags core majors and weakens on crosses. They estimate USD/CAD equilibrium at 1.3527, with undervaluation correcting mainly via Dollar softness.