Indonesia: Inflation pressures from Oil and festivals – DBS

DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s March CPI inflation to stay firm at 4% year-on-year, slightly below February’s 4.8%, but with a faster monthly pace. Analysts highlight the impact of higher energy prices and festive demand, as well as base effects.

Oil
India: Energy shock risks and policy playbook – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyses how the Iran conflict exposes India’s macro vulnerabilities through imported energy dependence and trade route risks. Kundu highlights broad spillovers from higher Oil and gas prices into the consumption basket and external balances.

Gold jumps above $4,500 as war fears revive haven buying spree

Gold (XAU/USD) price rallies over 3% on Friday as dip buyers emerge, amid the conflict entering its fifth week of hostilities, with no signs of de-escalation, and as inflation pressures rise. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,510 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,375.

South Korea: Trade resilience and energy-driven CPI – DBS

DBS Group Research sees South Korea’s March exports remaining in double-digit growth, supported by strong AI and data centre demand, higher memory prices and supply shortages, leading to a wider trade surplus despite rising import costs.

USD/MXN: Downside risks for Peso after Banxico cut – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Dan Pan and Erwin He note that Banxico’s surprise 25 bps cut and guidance for another easing step have increased downside risks for the Mexican Peso (MXN). They highlight crowded MXN long positioning and a narrower carry advantage versus other EM high-yielders.

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