TD Securities strategists Gennadiy Goldberg, Molly Brooks and Jan Nevruzi argue that proposed Basel III endgame and related US bank capital changes should ultimately support wider US swap spreads, particularly at the long end.
BNP Paribas analysts assess how the new energy shock from war in Iran and higher Oil and gas prices compares with 2022 for the Eurozone. They argue the current backdrop is less inflationary, with weaker demand and fewer supply constraints, and central banks now more reactive.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman argues the US Dollar’s response to the Middle East-driven energy shock has lost momentum. He cites lingering optimism about a relatively quick end to the conflict, a higher US policy risk premium, and yield spreads moving against the Dollar as key factors.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that Mexico’s strong US export performance and extensive USMCA compliance have cushioned the Mexican economy and the Peso from recent US tariff shocks.
GBP/JPY trades with a mild downside bias on Thursday, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and trims part of its intraday losses as markets remain volatile.
Singapore Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 (March) vs previous 50.6
Societe Generale analysts note the RBI has barred banks from offering INR NDFs to residents and non-residents to curb speculation, but they argue Rupee headwinds remain structural, tied to FPI outflows, Oil shock dynamics and slowing domestic growth, with 10-year yields seen heading toward 7.20–7.25
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $775.4B from previous $776.8B
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent Swiss inflation data and implications for the Swiss Franc. Foley notes that low Swiss CPI reduces pressure on the SNB to cut rates below zero, while credible FX intervention and safe-haven demand should keep CHF firm.
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 202K for the week ending March 28.
United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.841M above expectations (1.84M) in March 20
United States Goods Trade Balance dipped from previous $-81.8B to $-84.6B in February
