Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver two further rate hikes in 2026, taking policy closer to a rising neutral rate and supporting a modest Japanese Yen appreciation versus Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) in the second half of the year.
Wells Fargo’s international economics team notes that a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East leaves Oil market risks elevated and conviction on the outlook low.
American consumer confidence deflated in early April, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan released on Friday.
The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with EUR/USD extending gains for a fifth straight day, as improving risk sentiment following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement offsets the impact of firm US inflation data and keeps the Greenback under pressure.
Oscar Munoz and the TD Securities US macro team judge that, although core CPI surprised on the soft side and tariff pass-through moderated, it is too early for markets to extrapolate a dovish signal.
ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang notes that the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate at 2.5% and stressed a data-dependent stance as inflation pressures rise and GDP growth projections weaken.
Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that U.S. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, driven mainly by higher gasoline prices linked to the war in Iran, while core inflation remains moderate.
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.1 (April) vs previous 51.7
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.8% (April) vs 3.8%
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 47.6, below expectations (52) in April
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation increased to 3.4% in April from previous 3.2%
United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in February
