UOB economist Lee Sue Ann highlights a hawkish pivot by the Bank of England (BoE), with the Bank Rate held at 3.75% and a unanimous 9–0 vote. The report removes prior expectations for three 2026 cuts, now forecasting the GBP Repo Rate steady at 3.75% through 4Q26 as inflation risks dominate.
ABN AMRO economists Bill Diviney and Jan-Paul van de Kerke note that the ECB is likely to respond to the renewed energy shock with additional tightening focused on preventing second-round effects.
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 6.926M above expectations (0.5M) in March 20
TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay warns that Oil markets face escalating tightness as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely restricted and Gulf production cuts exceed 10m b/d.
ING’s Carsten Brzeski warns that Germany’s long-awaited cyclical rebound has been dented after the Ifo index fell sharply in March, with expectations suffering their worst hit since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports that the Euro faces conflicting forces as ECB President Christine Lagarde warns of potential forceful tightening if energy-driven inflation persists, while growth risks rise.
GBP/JPY trades within a tight range on Wednesday, with choppy price action as ongoing developments in the US-Israel war with Iran continue to drive volatility across the FX space, while traders show limited reaction to recent economic data.
USD/JPY trades around 159.00 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.18% on the day. The pair continues to draw support from sustained demand for the US Dollar (USD) in an environment marked by persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
TD Securities expects Norges Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, noting stubbornly sticky inflation and risks of re-acceleration after the Middle East crisis and energy price shock.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that AUD/USD is trading near the lower end of its recent 0.6900–0.7200 range. February inflation was slightly softer than expected, but Haddad expects Australian price pressures to accelerate as higher energy costs feed through.
ABN AMRO economists revise their Eurozone outlook after the Iran-related energy shock, expecting weaker growth but notably higher inflation. They now see the European Central Bank (ECB) hiking twice in Q2, front‑loading tightening to prevent second‑round effects.
ING’s James Smith outlines scenarios for UK inflation, with current energy prices implying a brief 4% peak in autumn and ING’s base case of easing disruption pointing to a 3.5% peak in September.
