USD: Safe-haven support as conflict risk builds – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the US Dollar’s initial weakness after President Trump extended the pause in attacks on Iran’s energy assets has been short-lived, with DXY only slightly lower.

UK: Surveys and GDP outlook – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects a relatively quiet UK data week, with focus on March DMP survey signals around the Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and hiring plans. He forecasts only marginal upside risk to Q4-25 GDP, with the ONS likely confirming 0.1% q-o-q growth.

GDP
ECB: Limited hikes despite inflation spike – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Jörg Krämer expects the ECB to react to war‑driven energy inflation with at most one additional rate hike. Inflation is projected to rise above 3% by summer before easing, while Eurozone growth is revised down to 0.6% in 2026.