BNY Strategist Geoff Yu argues that European rate markets still discount too many hikes for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) despite an improvement in global risk sentiment following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire.
United States 4-Week Bill Auction dipped from previous 3.62% to 3.56%
ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that the US Dollar (USD) has stabilised after Iran said the ceasefire was violated, but still see scope for renewed weakness.
The Euro (EUR) trades on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as the Greenback remains under pressure following the US-Iran ceasefire and hopes for de-escalation. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1676, extending gains for the fourth straight day.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the Pound (GBP) is consolidating Wednesday’s strong rebound versus the US Dollar (USD), with domestic risk limited ahead of upcoming Bank of England (BoE) speeches and data.
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said on Thursday that central banks should hike interest rates if inflation expectations threaten to de-anchor and ignite an inflation spiral, per Reuters.
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (41B) in April 3: Actual (50B)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/CNH has fallen sharply on a stronger Chinese Yuan (CNY) fix and improved risk sentiment following the US-Iran ceasefire.
United States Wholesale Inventories above expectations (-0.2%) in February: Actual (0.8%)
Commerzbank economists Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz highlight that recent US labor market indicators, especially nonfarm payrolls and hours worked, have become unusually volatile and subject to larger revisions.
TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes that Copper prices have almost fully retraced losses from the Iran war despite heavy fund liquidations and weakening risk assets.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage flags that USD/JPY is firmer as BoJ Governor Ueda reiterates accommodative policy and markets price a modest rate hike.
