The AUD/USD pair steadies on Friday, posting a slight decline after a four-day strike of gains, trading with a cautious tone amid fresh data releases in the US and geopolitical risks.
Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (0.6%)
Gold (XAU/USD) holds steady on Friday but lacks strong upside momentum as markets continue to monitor the evolving situation in the Middle East, while traders digest the latest US inflation data.
Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said in a post on X on Friday that two previously agreed measures, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets, must be implemented before negotiations begin.
TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that Canadian labour markets showed a modest rebound in March, with 14k jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver two further rate hikes in 2026, taking policy closer to a rising neutral rate and supporting a modest Japanese Yen appreciation versus Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) in the second half of the year.
Wells Fargo’s international economics team notes that a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East leaves Oil market risks elevated and conviction on the outlook low.
American consumer confidence deflated in early April, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan released on Friday.
The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with EUR/USD extending gains for a fifth straight day, as improving risk sentiment following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement offsets the impact of firm US inflation data and keeps the Greenback under pressure.
Oscar Munoz and the TD Securities US macro team judge that, although core CPI surprised on the soft side and tariff pass-through moderated, it is too early for markets to extrapolate a dovish signal.
ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang notes that the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate at 2.5% and stressed a data-dependent stance as inflation pressures rise and GDP growth projections weaken.
Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that U.S. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, driven mainly by higher gasoline prices linked to the war in Iran, while core inflation remains moderate.
