Global outlook: IMF set to cut growth forecasts – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points to upcoming IMF publications as key for assessing global risks.
USD: Fed patience and Iran risks shape outlook – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir argue that US macro dynamics and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations will be driven by developments in Iran, recent inflation data and incoming activity indicators.
HUF: Political shift boosts forint and EU ties – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman reports that Hungary’s election ended Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule, with Peter Magyar’s Tisza party on course for a supermajority. Planned institutional and constitutional changes could restore EU norms and unlock over EUR20 billion in frozen EU funds.
Russia Foreign Trade fell from previous $6.597B to $5.353B in February
Russia Foreign Trade fell from previous $6.597B to $5.353B in February
USD/JPY: Ueda caution and Oil risks in focus – BNY
BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stressing vigilance over higher Oil prices and global financial instability.
BoE: Seen on hold as data soften – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts note a quiet week for the UK, with the March RICS housing survey pointing to weaker demand as higher energy costs and mortgage rates weigh on confidence.
EUR/USD: Safe haven Dollar holds gains – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the US Dollar (USD) has benefited from renewed safe haven demand and reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, with EUR/USD currently testing below 1.17.
Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at -8.4%, below expectations (-0.5%) in February
Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at -8.4%, below expectations (-0.5%) in February
AUD/USD: Jobs data to steer RBA path – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) narrow 5–4 decision to hike in March leaves upcoming labor data crucial for timing the next move.
Oil: Prices surge on Hormuz blockade threat – ING
ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Oil markets rallied sharply after US-Iran talks collapsed, with ICE Brent jumping over 9% and NYMEX WTI moving above $105/bbl. The US plans a maritime blockade around Iranian ports, stoking supply fears.
Fed: On hold as energy shock lifts inflation – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists report the Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates at 3.50%-3.75% in March and still expects a 25 bp cut in September. Markets price only modest easing. They warn a prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade could push Brent toward USD 120.
USD/CAD holds flat as surging Oil, hawkish Fed expectations offset
USD/CAD trades around 1.3840 at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on Monday after briefly advancing earlier in the day.