Tanker Data Reveals OPEC Overproduction by Some Members, Denting Market Confidence

Independent tanker tracking data from multiple agencies showed that some OPEC member states are producing approximately 300,000 b/d above their production quota commitments, with Iraq overproducing by about 120,000 b/d, Kazakhstan by about 100,000 b/d, and the UAE by about 80,000 b/d. The OPEC Secretariat issued a statement requiring the relevant members to submit compensatory production cut schedules before the next meeting. Market concerns about compliance with the production cut agreement partially undermined OPEC+'s supply restraint support for oil prices, with both WTI and Brent falling about 1.2% on the day the data was released. Analysts warn that if overproduction persists, it will create a "supply glut" risk after the summer demand peak.