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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering losses in the previous trading day and hovering around 100.00 during the European hours on Tuesday. The Greenback receives support on increased safe-haven demand amid peace talks uncertainty surrounding the Iran war.
US President Donald Trump warned that he could target Iranian power plants and bridges unless his demands are met by 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday. Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough" ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” Trump said, adding, “They’re negotiating now, and they’ve made a very significant step. We’ll see what happens.”
The US Dollar receives support as the Iran war lifts energy prices, fueling inflation fears and prompting a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Markets have fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady this month, with borrowing costs likely to remain unchanged through year-end.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.5% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the April meeting. Traders are now looking ahead to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for clearer guidance on the central bank’s policy trajectory.
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering losses in the previous trading day and hovering around 100.00 during the European hours on Tuesday.
荷兰合作银行高级市场策略师本杰明·皮克顿强调了围绕伊朗、霍尔木兹海峡和北约分裂加剧的地缘政治风险，这些风险对石油有直接影响。
Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights escalating geopolitical risks around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and NATO fractures, with direct implications for Oil.
黄金（黄金/美元）连续第三天保持看跌偏向，尽管缺乏持续的抛售动力，且在周二欧洲早盘时段仍受限于前一日的较大波动区间内。
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to a negative bias for the third straight day, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains confined in the previous day's broader range through the early European session on Tuesday.
以下是您需要了解的4月7日星期二的要点
布朗兄弟哈里曼（BBH）的埃利亚斯·哈达德预计加拿大3月份劳动力调查将显示就业小幅反弹，而加拿大央行（BoC）可以利用其温和的通胀背景来忽视油价冲击。
西班牙 三月 HCOB Services PMI好于预期50.8：实际值(53.3)
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 7: