Market News
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Norges Bank: Disinflation slows rate path – Nomura
Nomura economists note Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% in August despite softer CPI-ATE inflation. The bank still flags a possible further hike, but they now expect a November move, with risks tilted to no additional increase and no rate cuts projected until September 2027.
Federal Reserve: Trump pressure and rate risks – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's Dr. Marco Wagner analyzes how Donald Trump’s past and potential future attacks on the Federal Reserve (Fed) affect its independence.
US Dollar: Yield support erodes on weaker inflation – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that softer US CPI and labour data kept DXY locked in a 99.4–100.1 range after the USD/JPY sell-off linked to joint US-Japan interventions. Markets sharply reduced the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve hike.
"Still an open question": Fed’s Barkin keeps possibility of rate hike alive
Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin highlighted on Thursday the persistent uncertainty surrounding the US inflation outlook and monetary policy.
Euro: Choppy range trading outlook against US Dollar – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses EUR/USD dynamics in light of shifting Fed rate hike expectations and Oil-related safe haven flows into the Dollar.
Japanese Yen: Policy support for BoJ hikes – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights USD/JPY trading just below 160.00 as Japan’s government signals support for faster Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes, reinforcing narrowing US–Japan differentials and a lower USD/JPY case.
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $740B from previous $720.3B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $740B from previous $720.3B
Turkish Lira: Further depreciation seen against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank FX analyst Tatha Ghose highlights persistent inflation pressures and renewed current account deterioration as key drivers for continued weakness in the Turkish Lira against the Dollar.
US PPI comes in softer than expected, confirms easing inflation pressure
Producer inflation in the United States (US) cooled more than expected in July, adding to evidence that inflationary pressure is gradually easing after Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Bank of Canada: Gradual tightening path into 2027 – NBC
National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie reaffirm their Bank of Canada (BoC) rate call, arguing that despite stronger Canadian labour data and robust Q2 GDP, accumulated slack and data lags should delay tightening.
US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 209K last week
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 209K for the week ending August 8.
WTI Oil Price Forecast: Momentum turns flat as Bollinger Bands expand
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades modestly lower on Thursday as traders weigh weaker demand forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) against supply disruptions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $80.50 per barrel, down 1.35% on the day.
United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.8M) in July 31: Actual (1.777M)
United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.8M) in July 31: Actual (1.777M)