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Australian Dollar: CPI keeps RBA on hold bias – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects Australia’s July inflation data to show further moderation, consistent with no additional Reserve Bank of Australia hikes this year. He argues Governor Bullock is likely to stay hawkish, and even a small inflation surprise could lift AUD.
Hungarian Forint: MNB tone shift watched – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Hungary's central bank, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), to cut its base rate by 25bp to 5.50%, but stresses that guidance will matter more for the Forint. While headline inflation has surprised on the downside, core and services pressures and energy risks persist.
Euro holds gains against Canadian Dollar on upbeat German IFO data
EUR/CAD extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.6160 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains stronger as the Euro (EUR) holds gains following the release of the German IFO business sentiment index data.
British Pound extends gains to fresh monthly peak, around mid-217.00s vs weaker Yen
The GBP/JPY cross catches fresh bids on Tuesday and climbs to its highest level since July 30, around mid-217.00s during the first half of the European session.
US Dollar: Policy crosscurrents shape outlook – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that renewed policy uncertainty and Federal Reserve (Fed) reaction risks are constraining US Dollar (USD) gains, even as higher US real yields and a resilient US economy limit downside.
British Pound: Upside bias toward 1.3700 against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe GBP/USD price action as range-bound intraday between 1.3615 and 1.3660, with momentum indicators neutral.
Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index improves again, arriving at 88.8 vs. 87.2 estimates
The German IFO Institute Business Climate Index improves again. The sentiment data arrives higher at 88.8 in August from 86.7 in July, revised higher from 86.6. The data also beats estimates of 87.2.
Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (87.5) in August: Actual (89.1)
Germany IFO – Expectations above forecasts (87.5) in August: Actual (89.1)
Germany IFO – Current Assessment above expectations (87) in August: Actual (88.5)
Germany IFO – Current Assessment above expectations (87) in August: Actual (88.5)
Germany IFO – Business Climate above forecasts (87.2) in August: Actual (88.8)
Germany IFO – Business Climate above forecasts (87.2) in August: Actual (88.8)
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rally pauses below 1.3700
The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.3640 during the European trading session on Tuesday, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges up, indicating strength in the British currency.
Gold: Path depends on yield regime shift – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart highlight that Gold’s recent strength alongside USD weakness and higher US yields has not historically confirmed a debasement story.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Could surpass 1.3900 as break above 38.2% Fibo. comes into play
The USD/CAD pair is seen building on its recovery move from the 1.3730 region, or a three-month low touched last week, and gaining positive traction for the second straight day on Tuesday.