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European Central Bank: Dovish hike path as energy drives inflation – ING
ING’s Carsten Brzeski expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates by 25bp next week, characterizing it as an ‘insurance’ or dovish hike. He notes Eurozone resilience, but stresses that inflation is mainly driven by energy, limiting the case for further tightening.
Singapore Manufacturing PMI up to 51.5 in August from previous 51.4
Singapore Manufacturing PMI up to 51.5 in August from previous 51.4
Reserve Bank of Australia: September hike expectations strengthen – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate by 25bps to 4.60% at the late-September meeting. The change follows stronger-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and firm discretionary consumption.
Canadian Dollar: Weak fundamentals cap gains against US Dollar - BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Canadian Dollar (CAD) positioning remains weak ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) decision, with USD/CAD dominating flows and cross-currency activity surprisingly limited.
New Zealand Dollar: Dovish RBNZ hike weighs – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperformed after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25 bps hike to 2.75% but signaled reduced need for further tightening.
US Dollar: Hawkish Fed expectations underpin strength – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that higher Oil prices and renewed US-Iran tensions have pushed global bond yields higher and strengthened the US Dollar, with markets fully pricing a 25bp Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike by October.
Fed's Williams: Recent data have been encouraging on inflation
In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, New York Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President John Williams said that tariffs and the Middle East war are big drivers of inflation over target, per Reuters.
Japanese Yen: Fed hawkishness offsets BoJ talk – ING
ING’s Chris Turner notes that USD/JPY is slightly lower after BoJ hawk Hajime Takata signalled the possibility of a 50bp September hike or back-to-back moves.
Euro outperforms Pound Sterling as ECB prepares for another rate hike
EUR/GBP edges higher on Wednesday, extending its advance for the third consecutive day and attempting to break above the narrow consolidation range that has been in place since late July. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8589, its highest level since July 1.
Canadian Dollar: US tensions overshadow BoC stance – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects the Bank of Canada to hold its key rate at 2.25%, a move he says is fully priced with only a small chance of a hike.
United States ADP Employment Change came in at 38K, below expectations (47K) in August
United States ADP Employment Change came in at 38K, below expectations (47K) in August
Federal Reserve: Election-year hikes and long-end rates risks – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists argue that Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions in election years remain driven by data rather than politics, with only a small difference in action frequencies versus non-election years.
Brazil Industrial Output (YoY): -0.5% (July) vs previous 1.7%
Brazil Industrial Output (YoY): -0.5% (July) vs previous 1.7%