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Middle East War updates: US-Iran pause strikes as Trump weighs up diplomatic options
Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.
Australian Dollar gains as Mideast tensions ease, RBA rate expectations rise
AUD/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive trading day, hovering near 0.7000 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines alongside a sharp drop in oil prices.
Singapore Dollar: MAS seen on hold with cautious inflation tone – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to leave the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) policy unchanged at Monday’s meeting despite a modest rebound in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 1.6% year-on-year in June.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Cross consolidates under 187.00, bulls target 188.00
The EUR/JPY consolidates around 186.00, edges down by 0.06% amid a souring of risk appetite amid the escalation of the US-Iran war, and strengthens safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen.
Malaysia: Solid fundamentals support Ringgit and bonds – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng argues that Malaysia’s financial markets reflect confidence in the country’s solid domestic fundamentals despite lingering Middle East geopolitical risks.
South Korean Won: Strong GDP and inflows support Won – Commerzbank
Commerzbank reports that South Korea’s advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. Robust AI-related semiconductor demand and resilient domestic spending underpin growth. The strong data support prospects of a further 25bp Bank of Korea hike in August.
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions up to £-55.6K from previous £-71.3K
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions up to £-55.6K from previous £-71.3K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥-152.1K vs previous ¥-122.7K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥-152.1K vs previous ¥-122.7K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $183.9K from previous $186.7K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions declined to $183.9K from previous $186.7K
Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions take center stage
The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ).
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi tests 0.5800 as bullish momentum fades
The New Zealand Dollar gains over 0.30% against the US Dollar on Friday. The pair is poised to test key resistance levels with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5793, slightly below the 0.5800 figure.
Thai Baht: Oil shock and dovish BoT keep THB pressured against US Dollar – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the Thai Baht (THB) is trading near its weakest level in more than a year against the US Dollar (USD), as volatile oil prices, a firmer USD and higher US yields weigh on the currency.
Euro falls even amid strong Eurozone PMIs
EUR/USD trades lower near the 1.1370 area on Friday, struggling despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone business-activity figures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firmer near 101.50, offering limited support to the pair.