Market News
Stay on top of the major news, data and analysis moving forex and global financial markets.
Euro struggles as French fiscal concerns and firm US Dollar dominate
EUR/USD reverses earlier gains on Friday and remains on track for a fifth consecutive weekly decline as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds from the previous day’s pullback. Concerns over France’s fiscal outlook also continue to weigh on sentiment toward the Euro (EUR).
New Zealand Dollar edges higher on softer US yields, Fed hike bets cap recovery
NZD/USD trades around 0.5605 on Friday at the time of writing, posting a modest gain of 0.06% on the day, but more broadly continuing to consolidate near its recent lows.
Japan: Bond outflows reshape global yields - Commerzbank
Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur highlights Japanese investors' net selling of foreign bonds and its implications for global yields. Although Japanese investors have recently returned as buyers of French bonds, their selling of US bonds has provided some support to the euro against the dollar.
Poland: Inflation outlook stabilises – ING
ING economists Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant expect Poland’s final September CPI, due Wednesday, to confirm headline inflation at 4% year-on-year, with core inflation easing and price growth concentrated in fuels and related services. They note improved short-term inflation prospects thanks to renewed cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT, and project headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% range by year-end.
WTI holds steady as traders weigh US-Iran tensions and supply risks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades little changed on Friday as traders weigh easing fears of an immediate US-Iran military escalation against persistent supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $90.65 per barrel, up 0.10% on the day.
Canada: Gradual improvement expected – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, mainly in public sectors, reversing much of summer gains and leaving year-to-date employment at -41,000. She highlights volatility in monthly data and stresses the unemployment rate remains below last year. Fan expects earlier labour market progress to hold and the unemployment rate to edge lower through 2026.
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index increased to 47.3 in October from previous 46.3
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index increased to 47.3 in October from previous 46.3
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations increased to 4.7% in October from previous 4.6%
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations increased to 4.7% in October from previous 4.6%
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation up to 3.5% in October from previous 3.4%
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation up to 3.5% in October from previous 3.4%
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 46.3, below expectations (47.6) in October
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 46.3, below expectations (47.6) in October
Gold: Short covering signals renewed bullish momentum - TD Securities
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are covering Gold shorts, with positioning rising by around 7% of maximum historical size. They note renewed inflows into Chinese Gold ETFs after the holiday and continued global ETF demand.
Indian Rupee: RBI seen keeping hike option open – DBS
DBS Group Research anticipates India’s September inflation to rise to 5.7% year-on-year from 4.8%, driven by broad-based food price gains and higher non-food fuel costs. Core inflation is expected to tick up as uneven monsoon conditions and elevated Oil prices add pressure, leading DBS to expect the RBI to keep the door open for a possible rate hike in December 2026.
European Central Bank: Conditional support and French risks – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Economist Maartje Wijffelaars describes widening French spreads and notes 38% of French high-grade corporate debt now yields less than government bonds. She argues most spread widening may be over as France is seen as too big to fail and ECB tools exist. She outlines ECB conditionality for TPI and stresses France’s need for a credible budget.