Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley observes that speculators have been rebuilding long Dollar positions as the US currency acts as the preferred safe haven during the Middle East conflict.
Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area activity data in Q1 have been somewhat disappointing, especially German industry, but they see limited upside risk to their cautious 0.1% qoq German GDP forecast.
Deutsche Bank economists note the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged in March but now expects two 25 bp hikes in June and September, already fully priced by markets. The deposit rate sits at 2.0%, seen as neutral.
ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky say Hungary’s new Tisza-led supermajority reduces short-term policy uncertainty and raises expectations for institutional repair, EU relations and fiscal credibility.
United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.06M) in March: Actual (3.98M)
United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -3.6% in March from previous 1.7%
HSBC's report on G8 currencies argues that Middle East geopolitics and Oil remain the dominant drivers for the Dollar and major FX. The bank highlights a recently strengthened USD–Oil correlation driven by supply shock and safe-haven flows.
NZD/USD moves lower at the start of the week and trades around 0.5830 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day after the failure of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran over the weekend.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points to upcoming IMF publications as key for assessing global risks.
TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir argue that US macro dynamics and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations will be driven by developments in Iran, recent inflation data and incoming activity indicators.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman reports that Hungary’s election ended Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule, with Peter Magyar’s Tisza party on course for a supermajority. Planned institutional and constitutional changes could restore EU norms and unlock over EUR20 billion in frozen EU funds.
Russia Foreign Trade fell from previous $6.597B to $5.353B in February
